A mere eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. After the England international curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
